Axis of Evil II?

 
With Lula's election in Brazil and the campaign to overthrow Hugo Chávez in Venezuela, there has been much talk in neoconservative sectors of a Latin American "Axis of Evil." Initially this idea came from comments by conservative political scientist Constantine Menges linking Lula to Chávez and Fidel Castro. Later, it was picked up by Henry Hyde (R-IL), the Chair of the House Foreign Relations Committee. Although sensationalist, such remarks could contain a grain of reality from the perspective of a Latin American anti-free trade axis-and one that would not necessarily be restricted to Menges's trio.

The real axis against the FTAA as it currently stands could link Brazil with other populist regimes that feel burned by US neglect, such as Argentina and Ecuador. Obviously, if he survives, Chávez would be a player as well. After being "let down gently" on the immigration reform issue by Secretary of State Colin Powell, Mexico's President Fox also has been less supportive of the FTAA and has voiced concern about the overall impact of NAFTA on his country's agriculture. Lula could exploit this climate to seek common cause with Mexico. A long-awaited rapprochement between Mexico and Brazil is much easier now that Fernando Henrique Cardoso is leaving the scene. An additional factor is the affinity between Lula and Mexican Foreign Minister Jorge Castañeda, who go back many years as partners in the loose coalition of leftist parties called the Forum of São Paulo.

At the same time that Lula visited Washington recently, South American leaders meeting in Brasília set an ambitious timetable for creating a free trade agreement to cover South America and possibly the Caribbean. Negotiations are to begin soon to eliminate tariff barriers between the continent's six Mercosur countries and five other nations of the Andean Community trading bloc. This process would give South America more clout in the US-led FTAA negotiations, but it remains to be seen if the political will exists to improve the region's negotiating capacity in the hemispheric talks.

The growing disaffection with free trade in Latin America is countered by the successful negotiation of the free trade accord between Chile and the US. This agreement certainly will complicate Brazil's continued desires to speak for a more united and demanding bloc of Latin American nations. But Chile, it should be remembered, is considered the odd man out within Latin America. Mexico would be a real plum for Brazil. You can be sure that the US will work extra hard to placate Mexico, if only to ward off the possibility of Brazil becoming more influential as it assumes the co-chair of the FTAA negotiations.

Brazil under Lula will have additional resources in its efforts to create an FTAA more favorable to its interests. Currently, the major hemispheric civil society organizations that are operating an aggressive campaign against the FTAA all have their operations coordinated in Brazil through that country's exceptionally well-organized and professional trade union center, the CUT. The scene is set for some real arm wrestling between Brazil and the United States on the trade issue. Lula's government brings to the table a tested and sophisticated team with a wealth of experience dealing independently with Mercosur as well as the WTO and FTAA negotiations. Observers are waiting to see where several of these old hands end up in the Lula government. One, Antonio Prado of Inter-Union Economic and Statistical Studies (DIEESE), is already a key policy advisor to the president. The former lieutenant governor of the state of Rio Grande do Sul, Miguel Rosetto, could likely be another.

Lula's approach to trade and development will be discussed at the next World Social Forum in Porto Alegre, Brazil in late January. AmericasNet will be there! By that time, the second potential "Evil Axis" could include a wider spectrum of concerned Latin American nations.